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The Investec Champions Cup is set to enter its final round of pool stage matches with plenty still to play for the majority of clubs.
One of the clubs playing only for pride is Bayonne as they were eliminated from the competition last weekend following their heavy defeat to Leicester Tigers. The Top 14 side face their biggest challenge yet in the competition when Leinster roll into town. The Irish side will be aiming to secure a bonus point win, in the hopes they can still finish among the top two seeds of the competition to give them home advantage until the final in Bilbao.
Leinster just about managed to get over the line at home against La Rochelle last weekend, and this once again could prove to be a difficult task due to their injury problems. Leo Cullen has named as strong a team as possible for this fixture, but Bayonne have opted to name a strong side with their pride on the line as they look to put on a show for their fans.
Leinster’s Lions won’t be feasting on the Pottok in the Basque Country
Leinster were not convincing in their victory last weekend in Dublin against La Rochelle. Ronan O’Gara will be furious at the wasted opportunity to have scalped the Irish side, as they failed to take advantage of two sin bins, dropped the ball on the line as they looked to be in for a try and then had possession with a minute left on the clock before knocking the ball on and giving the hosts the chance to launch a final attack that would result in them scoring a penalty and securing the win.
Questions continue about the disjointed attack at the URC club; however, there will be concerns around their defence. Leinster conceded eleven penalties, resulting in two yellow cards, while a more concerning stat is their missed tackle count, as they only had a success rate of 64%. Bayonne may also take lessons from the La Rochelle gameplan, as their offload game managed to cause all sorts of problems for the Irish side, as the 31 offloads allowed them to get through the defence and did not give them much time to set up.
Bayonne could be perfectly set up to exploit this weakness in the Leinster defence, as they have an offload success rate of 75.9%, according to Opta Analyst. This paired with the dominance in which they carry, as 42.9% of them have been dominant. Meanwhile, they are ranked tenth when it comes to making 20+ metres in their carries among the teams competing in the top domestic leagues in Europe, as 10.2% of them have resulted into significant carries.
The Odds
Bayonne have been made significant underdogs for this fixture, which makes sense from their performance to this point in the competition, particularly when compared to Leinster and their history at this stage of the Champions Cup. The French side have been given odds of +550 to be winners of this game by Bet365 from Odds Checker, which means that if you put £1 on the match, you will receive £5.50 in return. Meanwhile, Leinster are significant favourites, being given odds of -550 by FanDuel; this means that if you put in £10, you will win £1.82, giving you a return of £11.82.
Punters may be interested to see the handicap on offer for this fixture, with the best offer being for Bayonne, as Bet365, according to Odds Checker are offering the French side at a +16 points handicap for +100. This means that Bayonne would they start the game with an extra 16 points and if the individual was to put £10 on this bet they would win £10 giving them a total return of £20. Should a punter wish to put money on a Leinster handicap, there may be interest in putting money on a -22 points difference for the visitors to make up, with the odds at FanDual, according to Odds Checker, being +185, meaning if you put £10 on them you will win £18.50, giving you a total return of £28.50.
A fascinating weekend of rugby is upon us as we enter the final round of pool stage matches in the Investec Champions Cup.
In each pool there are teams that have already secured progression to the round of 16; however, the incentive of securing home advantage in the knockout rounds should see sides battling it out to top their respective group. Then there are still the teams battling it out to earn a spot in the next round of the competition.
Punters will be taking all this into consideration before placing their money at risk, with some willing to take a chance on an underdog; however, there will be those that go for a safer option as they look to back a guaranteed winner.
Toulouse Go Fishing In Southern France
Sale Sharks confirmed their progression to the round of 16 last weekend as they beat the Hollywoodbets Sharks at the CorpAcq Stadium, while Toulouse’s surprising defeat to Saracens has left them in a precarious position. The French club must secure a win; otherwise, there is a chance that they could still be eliminated from the competition, and this has seen them name as strong a squad as possible for this fixture. However, Sale appear to be pleased with their progress to the next stage as they have named a squad which has omitted some of their stars with Alex Sanderson making nine changes for their journey to southern France.
Toulouse are still one of the favourites for the competition this season despite their two away defeats to Glasgow Warriors and Saracens, as they are viewed as one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the competition. Sale Sharks have been much improved in defence since their victory over Clermont Auvergne earlier in the competition and they will need to be at their best to attempt to keep Toulouse at back from making this a cricket score following the team news.
According to Opta Analyst, the English side are ranked fifth for dominant tackles among teams competing in the top domestic leagues in Europe. They have registered 7.9% of their tackles being dominant. Meanwhile, an important element of Sale’s defence against Toulouse may be their goal line denial, with the Premiership team managing to deny opposition from scoring a try when entering their 22 on 31.8% of their stacks, seeing them ranked fifth across Europe.
However, Toulouse will believe their attack will have too much for the strong defence of Sale. The French sides have several methods in which to break down the English side, with one of their strengths being their dominant carries. Toulouse are ranked fifth across Europe, with 47.9% of their carries being dominant. While their offloading success is among the best in Europe with 80.6% of them being completed and this has a significant impact on their attack as it has allowed them to break the gain line more often and this has been incredibly successful for them in scoring tries as 50.5% of their breaks lead to them scoring at least five points. The final thing to consider is the speed at which they are able to recycle the ball from the ruck, with 62.3% of their rucks being less than three seconds. This should have a significant impact on the game, as it will be interesting to see if Sale are able to get in their defensive shape time and time again at this relentless speed.
The Odds
According to Odds Checker Toulouse have been made clear favourites for this game, as they have been given odds of 1/50 by Betfair, meaning that with a £10 bet you could win 20p along with your initial backing.
Punters may be interested to see the handicap on offer for this fixture. There may be interest in putting money on a -45.5 points difference for Toulouse to make up, with the odds at SpreadEx being 7/5, meaning if you put £7 on them you will win £5.
Meanwhile, the best offer for Sale comes from SpreadEx. If you opt to put money on Sale, you have a +45.5 for the game, meaning that they start the game with an extra 45.5 points. On a bet of £8, you would win £15 plus your initial backing.
