Round Three of the Investec Champions Cup and EPCR Challenge Cup is upon us, with some enthralling contests across the weekend, notably two repeats of recent finals, as Bordeaux-Bègles host Northampton Saints while La Rochelle travel to Dublin, where they won their second title, to face Leinster.
Round Three of the Investec Champions Cup and EPCR Challenge Cup is upon us, with some enthralling contests across the weekend, notably two repeats of recent finals, as Bordeaux-Bègles host Northampton Saints while La Rochelle travel to Dublin, where they won their second title, to face Leinster.
Several teams are eyeing the top spot in their respective pools and a guaranteed home round of 16 fixture. Meanwhile, there are massive matches for sides aiming to remain part of the competition by placing themselves in a strong position for progression to the knockout rounds.
Punters will be looking at which games could offer the greatest return for their money, and so here is where ATR believes their attention should lie this weekend.
An Upset In Dublin
Leinster and La Rochelle are set to reignite their rivalry once again this weekend, one which has seen the Irish side come out victorious on three of the five occasions; however, not when it counted, as Ronan O’Gara’s side won their first two encounters, resulting in them lifting the famous Champions Cup trophy on both occasions, first in Marseille in 2022 and a year later in Dublin.
Leo Cullen’s side have won their last seven games in a row, five in the URC and their opening two fixtures of this competition. Nothing but a bonus point win will do for the Irish side in their ambition of topping this pool, as the Stormers arguably have more favourable fixtures in the final two rounds of this stage in the Champions Cup. So, Leinster have named as strong a matchday squad as possible, with the debate set to rage on about who should be the starting fly-half, with Sam Prendergast given the nod over Harry Byrne.
La Rochelle earned commanding victories over Bayonne and Toulon across the festive period; however, they also suffered a hammering by Toulouse between these two wins. Munster legend O’Gara will aim to rally his squad to upset the odds, like they did in 2023, by travelling to the Irish capital, aiming to quieten the Dublin crowd. The La Rochelle head coach has named as strong a squad as possible to face Leinster, with Will Skelton returning to action for this, perhaps suggesting the severity of this fixture to O’Gara.
The Statistical Edge
Neither of these two teams are setting the rugby world alight this season, across both their domestic and European competitions. Leinster may be favourites for the game according to the bookies, as according to Odds Checker, they are given odds of -500. However, their attacking performance may be cause for concern; that is according to Opta’s Analyst.
O’Gara will be well aware of Leinster’s struggles when carrying the ball, with only 31.6% of them being dominant, ranking them 32nd out of the 40 teams participating in the top European domestic competitions. While their gainline success from these carries is 58.4%, ranking them 21st.
Now, Leinster will be confident in their defence, but so too will La Rochelle. Both clubs have been successful in 85% of their attempted tackles; however, it must be noted the French side are one of the best clubs across Europe for dominant tackles, with this being 7.5% of them, ranking them seventh.
The two clubs have different attacking approaches, particularly when it comes to their kicking game, with the Irish side aiming to make them more contestable than the Jaune et Noir, as this was 16.7% of their kicks compared to 12.3%. However, O’Gara’s side do employ a strong kicking game, with 43.4% of possessions ending in a kick, the 10th highest across Europe’s top leagues.
These metrics may indicate the French side’s plan for this fixture, with O’Gara deciding to name a powerful forward unit with the return of Skelton and a dynamic backline including Davit Niniashvili and Jack Nowell to trouble Leinster.
The Odds
According to Odds Checker, Leinster have been made clear favourites, as they have been given odds of -500 to be winners of this game, compared to La Rochelle, who are deemed significant underdogs, being given odds of +350, the best odds at the time of writing from Bet365.
Now, punters may be interested to see the handicap on offer for this fixture, as it may be incredibly likely due to the strength of the two sides named, meaning it will be a close encounter. Odds Checker has La Rochelle at +11 at odds of -110. While Leinster at -11 is being given odds of +100.
Punters will be sizing up where to put their money this weekend, with those willing to take a risk by backing an underdog, with ATR explaining why La Rochelle would be your best bet, while others will go for the safer option, looking to back guaranteed winners.
ATR has the latter covered as we examine a certain winner for this weekend.
Salford’s Sharks Showdown
Sale Sharks are set to host the Hollywoodbets Sharks at the CorpAcq Stadium, with both sides aware a win is essential for them to progress in the competition. However, the squad announcements point to only one winner from this fixture. Alex Sanderson has named as strong a squad as possible for this fixture, while the South African side have omitted a few of their big names ahead of their journey to the north of England.
The English side appear transformed since the departure of Marco Bortolami, who left his role of head coach ahead of their match against Clermont. Sale would go on to win this game against the odds away in France, and since then they have looked like the side we got used to over the past couple of seasons, with their defensive performances notably improving.
While the South African side have had mixed fortunes, as they occupy 14th in the URC, winning on only three occasions in all competitions this season.
Opta Analyst backs this up, as Sale are ranked third among teams competing in the top domestic leagues in Europe, with 7.9% of tackles being dominant. The Sharks are not far behind, with 6.8% of their tackles being dominant, but they are ranked 36th of the 40 clubs in the highest divisions across the continent for successful tackles.
The English side have the ability to mix up their approach, so they should prove to be a real challenge for this Sharks side, with 32.1% of their possessions going wider than the first receiver, ranking them second among the clubs across Europe. Sanderson’s side are ranked seventh for contestable kicks with 17.3% as the team adapt to the tactical alteration of the rugby rules. These approaches have seen them make 20+ metres 12.1% of the time when attacking. Now the Premiership side will feel confident they can deal with the South African’s style of play, as they are ranked fourth for contestable kicks, with the side opting to use this approach 17.8% of the time.
The Odds
According to Odds Checker, Sale have been made clear favourites for the fixture, as they have been given odds of -1115 to be winners of this game compared to the Sharks, who are deemed significant underdogs, being given odds of +850.
Punters may be interested to see the handicap on offer for this fixture, with the best offer being for Sale, as FanDuel, according to Odds Checker, are offering the English side at -23 at odds of +192. While the best offer for the Sharks' handicap is from Bet365, as the South Africans at +19 are being given odds of +100.
