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Here in Ireland there is one throwaway rugby phrase that I just cannot stand. “Sure, we were rubbish in the nineties”. This is often used to disarm any negativity towards modern day Irish rugby, because, to put it frankly, the 1990s were a grim period.
You will often hear it on weeks like this, in an attempt to smother any increasing fears about the current tide of the men’s national side. And with the Springboks coming to town, those fears are rational.
To put it mildly, South Africa should be overwhelming favourites for Saturday’s Dublin decider. Back-to-back Rugby Championship victors and defending World Cup champions; Rassie’s native land are this generation’s team to beat.
However, with just 1 win from 4 against Andy Farrell and Ireland; the country in which he lived before returning home is now his bogey team. And he will want to rectify that. All four of those meetings have been decided by one score or less, so why would this week be any different?
Fun Facts and Metrics
Ireland are aiming for a fourth straight home win over South Africa, dating back to 2012.
South Africa are looking to make it 10 in a row against European sides, their best run since the 1990s.
Ireland’s Tommy O’Brien has 5 tries in 5 tests so far, making him one of the most clinical in world rugby this season.
You have to go back to 2000 (18-28) when South Africa won in Dublin by more than 7 points. They are six points favourites this week.
Sam Prendergast (75%) and Jack Crowley (75.8%) have been more accurate off the tee this year than Sacha (71.4%), but Handre Pollard (95.5%) and Mannie Libbok (79%) are ahead of both.
Prendergast has also kicked the most, and for the most metres, of anyone in the matchday squads this year.
Only RG Snyman (14) features in the list of most offloads in test rugby this year; but Tom Farrell’s 3.0 per 80 minutes is second only to Antoine Dupont.
Ryan Baird is currently averaging 1.4 lineout steals per 80 minutes; while the Boks are averaging just 85.9% return on their own throw.
What to Expect
If you think Ireland kicked a lot last week, you ain’t seen nothing yet. The inclusion of Sam Prendergast at 10, coupled with the returning Josh van der Flier suggests the oval ball will be collecting serious airmiles.
Ireland were counted for having 45 kicks in play last week, which is a serious increase from their 2025 average of 31.2 per game. I expect to see Ireland move the point of possession when possible, forcing the Boks to come back at them. Ireland play without the ball, and are likely to try the same from the off.
South Africa are likely to be a stark improvement from the Wallabies, who capitulated in the back field coverage. Damian Willemse will be more assured under the high ball, can clear his lines better and offers a superior counter attacking threat.
The multi threat of the Boks backline, is what will scare Ireland the most. They will have seen Australia’s return on pillar and fringe attack, and know they have the pack to copy. The ever-impressive De Allende and Kriel will lick their lips at the prospect of Sam Prendergast at 10, while the counter transition attack threat out wide will be superior to Ireland for pace.
The South African average of 25.8 defenders beaten per game is credited to Tony Brown’s reinvented philosophy, but also the athletic profile of the Boks squad. If Ireland fail to pitch up mentally, they might face an afternoon chasing their tails before sleepwalking into a defeat.
What Does History Say?
As I alluded to above, fortune favours the Irish. Ireland have not lost multiple home games in a calendar year since 2013, or multiple November games since the same campaign. The Boks have 2 wins from 8 in Autumn tests in Dublin, and 1 from 4 against Andy Farrell’s men.
However, there is a clear opening. Ireland’s November campaign feels like a fast tracked version of the Six Nations just gone. Australia mirroring England, Japan like Italy or Wales; with the fear of this game being aligned to France.
Les Bleus’ second half frenzy sent Ireland into a spiral that day, and given the high intensity showpiece in Paris recently, it would be foolish not to draw comparisons between the Six Nations and Rugby Championship winners.
If South Africa can live with Ireland’s purple patches, gain parity at set piece and bring an intense physicality on both sides of the ball; then we may see the aging Irish squad come up short against the world number 1.
But of all weeks, it is important to remind yourself to never bet against the Irish.
Prediction: Ireland by 3
