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Scotland go into the final two weeks of the Guinness Men’s Six Nations knowing that the results they accrue will define their Championship and decide if it was one for the ages, or one to forget.
Gregor Townsend’s outfit went into the fallow week in good heart, following bonus point wins over England and Wales. The first was spectacular, the second dogged, but they still ended the same way, with Scottish smiles and five points in the bag.
What a contrast to opening weekend, when they lost narrowly to Italy in the Rome rain, and the calls screaming for Townsend’s dismissal grew louder and louder.
Now comes the acid test. A rampant France, and an Ireland side who Townsend has never beaten. Can they beat them? Could they turn the outcome upside down in a way they haven’t since they defeat England at a monsoon like Murrayfield on 2000.
Here’s what ATR thinks they need…
Next Match Matters Most
There two matches are all that matters to Scotland right now, and while it is tempting to look ahead to Dublin, the match against France should be the sole focus for the squad, staff, and fans. Scotland’s last triumph came in 2021 and repeating that should be the only thing on their mind this week.
Ireland have proven to be Scotland’s bête noire and as well as eight Six Nation victories, they won pool matches between the two at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups. For many involved in Scottish rugby beating them is their last great challenge.
But to do that they will need to need to beat or at least take a point or two in defeat to France. That will only happen if their minds are fully focused on the match at the Stade de France. Win and they have the chance to leave themselves in contention for the title on the final day. Lose focus and France will do damage that will not be fixed on a final day trip to the Aviva Stadium.
Play On Their Fears
Former Scotland number eight Johnnie Beattie, a man who has only recently returned to Scotland after over a decade in France, revealed this week that Les Bleus are more nervous about playing Scotland in Murrayfield, than facing England on the final day in Paris.
England, you see, are very formulaic and easy to read, while Scotland are the complete opposite. How do you stop a team that doesn’t appear to know how it will attack next?
That should be carte blanche for Townsend to give his team unlimited rope to play with. Quick tap penalties, off you go. Quick lineouts? Crack on. Width, width, with, pace, pace, pace are the order of the day. Chances are France coach Fabien Galthie will opt for backrowers in the second row, meaning they will last a bit longer than the behemoths he used against Italy. However, the more defensive work they have to do, the sooner they will tire. Do that and Scotland have a fighting chance.
Stick To The Script
Scotland’s win over Wales was an important one, as it showed that they could win with a bit of doggedness and not just flowing rugby. Yes, Wales are low on confidence, but they tested Scotland and Townsend’s side responded as he would have wanted.
It helps having Finn Russell pulling the strings, as his quick-thinking showed for Jamie Dobie’s try. He also showed he can control a match that appears to be running away, just as he did in the second Lions test in Australia.
Even against Italy, Scotland had half a chance after staying on course with their plan. Chasing the win as the clock ran down, over 29 phases they mauled Italy into their 22 and appeared on course to snatch a late victory. The move only came unstuck after Max Williamson’s solo charge into Niccolo Cannone’s warming embrace and a maul that didn’t finish in time.
Do that any time against France, and the likelihood is that not only will you lose the ball, but that France will be racing away to score soon after.
Does Double Ds Mean Double Joy?
Gregor Townsend was handed good news earlier in the week when number eight Jack Dempsey was passed fit, and he goes straight into the starting team, alongside Rory Darge and Matt Fagerson in the backrow.
They have also brought in Darcy Graham on the wing. Scotland’s joint all-time try-scorer has crossed for 35 tries and after he came off the wing three times this Championship, Townsend has in effect said ‘now is the time’ to get into teams from the start.
Pierre Schoeman’s return will solidify the pack, and Zander Fagerson’s place on the bench is a reflection of his struggles in the scrum recently, but also recognition that Scotland will need as much punch coming on late on.
Ewan Ashman returns to the squad for the first time since he suffered a case of the yips with his lineout throwing against Italy. He can afford no repeat when he comes on. Every facet of Scotland’s play has to be nigh on perfect, or it will be a long old afternoon.
