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The question for Wales ahead of their match against Ireland on Friday is the same as it has been for every game this Six Nations: What does success look like? When victories feel impossible, assessing performances becomes subjective. What is good defeat? How do we measure it? What are our KPIs?
If ‘progress’ is the target, then the criteria must change every week. Against Scotland, Wales stayed in the fight for 70 minutes, discipline was much improved, set piece was solid and the attack flowed smoothly. Therefore, if progress is what we seek, the performance against Ireland must contain all of these and more.
That is unless we deem Ireland away to be a significant step harder than Scotland at home – which we probably should – in which case maintaining the same levels of performance could also be seen as progress.
What Wales should expect from Ireland is anyone’s guess. After getting thrashed by France in round 1 and labouring to a win over Italy in round 2, they pulled out an all time performance from nowhere to deliver a record victory against England.
We know that Andy Farrell has shifted away from the 100+ ruck, 200+ tackle game plan they were using right up till 2024. He has finally started experimenting with his line-up (a full 2 years after most fans started demanding that he should), although the decision to do that is probably made easier by a) the title being, realistically, out of reach and b) playing against the worst side in the tournament.
Still, the players he has brought in are all in good form and are tremendous talents in their own right. No Dan Sheehan feels like a big call but the addition of Nick Timoney makes for an exciting and dynamic back row. He, Conan and Doris are exactly the kind of power athletes that Wales have struggled to produce. Seeing Doak get a chance also feels justified based on excellent URC form.
Speaking of which, a scarcely believable 7 Ulster players have been included in Ireland’s 23. This is a massive departure from just a few months ago where no Ulster players were getting selected. Some might say this is a just reward for their excellent URC form – which was distinctly lacking last season – others might say the scales are finally falling from the selectors’ eyes. The irony is that Ulster are actually 0 from 3 in games played in Wales this season; they have won more games in South Africa (1).
Steve Tandy has made 3 changes to the XV which faced Scotland, of which 2 are injury enforced. Dan Edwards, who struggled in the opening rounds, comes in for the unavailable Sam Costelow at fly half whilst James Botham is retained after coming on early for Taine Plumtree against the Scots. Botham was expected but there was uncertainty about Edwards, with many fans backing Jarrod Evans to be given a chance. Evans now has 8 bench appearances but 0 starts since Matt Sherrat joined the Wales set-up 12 months ago.
The other change is Ellis Mee coming in for Hamer-Webb on the wing. Hamer-Webb did not play particularly badly against Scotland, but the dropping of Mee for him was perplexing. In an interview, Tandy said his reason for re-selecting Mee was that he had played well in the first 2 games. If that is the case, why did he drop him for the 3rd game at all? Cynics will say it was to stop England from poaching Hamer-Webb.
Adam Beard and Olly Cracknell make their returns via the bench, but the most eye-catching replacement is Bath back Louis Hennessy. Having shone for Wales U20s a couple of seasons ago, there are high hopes for this player. Under the current Sherratt backline which necessitates a ball carrier being selected at 13, the 6ft3, 105kg Hennessy could be seen as a long-term development option or even as a winger. It will be interesting to see who he comes on for.
Individual performances alone will not be enough for Wales to hit the passing grade against Ireland. Even in a much improved performance against Scotland, the defence was still shredded with worrying ease at times. There must also be improvements aerially - a facet in which Ireland dominated against the English.
Meanwhile, away from the Six Nations, the inferno that is Welsh rugby politics continues to blaze back home. On Wednesday night, it was leaked via the press who the 51 clubs supporting an EGM were, thus revealing who was in favour of ousting independent chair Richard Collier-Keywood. Last week, off-field matters distracted from the Six Nations less than 24hrs after the full time whistle on the Scotland game was blown. If Wales can show progress again this week, let us hope the governing body wait until at least Monday before crushing everyone’s good mood.
